Iran's Economy is certainly in a retreating state and the views of the Supreme Leader of Iran definitely indicates that Iran needs relief from the sanctions to revive its economy. And, for achieving the same "a more constructive negotiating stance on the nuclear program will be needed" says Hassan Rohani, the most outward and moderate fced Presidential Candidate. Despite the severe economic pain that the tightening of sanctions has brought on Iran's people, its strategic calculus has not shifted. Mr.Rohani's resounding victory in the elections has raised hopes for a nuclear deal between Iran and the International community. His election means the next round of negotiations will be conducted in a better atmosphere.
But to what end?
The Nuclear Program is worth almost any sacrifice on the altar of buying peace with the international community, because it guarantees the regime's survival against the external threats. It seems obvious that nothing is likely to stop Iran getting the bomb, if and when it decides it wants one. For Iran, the continuity of nuclear talks would mean getting some alleviating off sanctions, in exchange of concessions that will have little impact on its Nuclear Program. The troublesome truth is that while the talks seem destined to continue, Iran is close to what is known as "Critical Capability"- the point at which it could produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one or more bombs, before the Western Intelligence Agencies would even know it had done so.
How close is Iran to Critical Capability?
American Sources say, it is about a year away from having enough material to make a bomb and mastering the nuclear technology. Reports say if Iran has a small enrichment facility designed to enrich uranium from 20% to 90%, it could quite soon be able to manufacture enough material for making 5 bombs in about 14 weeks using newer technologies. Iran is adding to its enrichment capability at an obstinate pace and at this speed it could produce the fissile material needed for an implosion device, the most common form of nuclear bomb. Iran's stockpile of low enriched uranium has gone from 2.50 MT to around 4.30 MT in the same period; quite a growth within strict observations. However, these developments are proceeding, without Iran appearing to risk crossing either the red line, announced by Barack Obama or the most recent limit set by Israel's Prime minister.
Neither Iran's Election, nor sanctions nor military threats are likely to divert it from the path it is on getting nuclear weapons.
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